More than 800.000 will apply for asylum in Germany, 40 percent could expect recognition
According to an OECD report, more than a million people will apply for asylum by the end of 2015, in Germany alone 800.000. 350.000-450.000 can expect to receive a permit – and with it a permanent right of residence. Last year 630.000 people applied for asylum, as many as in 1992. By the end of August 2015, Frontex had deployed more than half a million "illegal" Refugees paid, in 2014 it was still 280.000. 330.000 refugees arrived via the Mediterranean Sea.
The OECD points out that the inclusion of such coarse quantities poses many problems and will be expensive. In the long term, the goal is to integrate refugees into societies. This is not only a burde, but could also cost "a significant gain for the development of societies" be possible if sufficient support is provided for integration and job creation.
He said it was the worst refugee crisis since the Second World War. Of the OECD countries, Turkey is particularly affected, with 1.9 million refugees from Syria alone, in addition to 300.000 people from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq. In the EU, there are hours on the "Frontline" Italy, Greece and Hungary. Germany has become the main destination country, but Austria, Switzerland and Sweden are also particularly sought after, considering the ratio to population.
In contrast to the wave of refugees in the 1990s during the wars in Yugoslavia, for example, more unaccompanied children are arriving, but the refugees from Syria in particular are also better educated. The OECD points to figures from Germany showing that 15 percent of asylum seekers have a university degree, 16 percent have a high school diploma, 35 percent have lower secondary education, and 24 percent have only a primary school diploma. 11 percent have not attended school. In contrast, 21 percent of asylum seekers who arrived in Germany in 2013-2104 had said they had a college degree, and 22 percent said they had high school diplomas.
Refugees were mainly going to richer countries where there is a good labor market. For some countries, however, a large number of asylum seekers is a new experience, with Hungary, Poland and Bulgaria being highlighted. Another difference is that the refugees come from many different countries. In 2014, 21 percent of refugees who applied for asylum were from Syria, 9.6 percent from Kosovo, 6.4 percent from Eritrea, and 2.6 percent from Iraq. In the first half of 2015, refugees from Syria, Eritrea and Iraq accounted for only a quarter of all applicants, but that will change in the second half, according to the OECD, because applications from the Western Balkans have dropped dramatically and more refugees are coming via the Balkan route. The greater diversity of countries of origin makes integration more complex and difficult. In addition, the refugees have travelled longer distances than those in the 1990s. They therefore had to invest more in their flight/travel, but after rejection the repatriations will also become correspondingly more expensive.
The OECD makes clear what is actually obvious, that there is little hope for improved conditions in the countries from which refugees come. For example, the security situation in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, but also in Ukraine, was expected to deteriorate further. And in the countries south of the Sahara a high urge to emigrate continued to exist. The high level of poverty and unemployment in the Western Balkans, especially among the Roma, will continue to generate refugees. In Albania, according to surveys, 40 percent of people eventually want to emigrate, in Serbia it is 24 percent, in Ukraine 21 percent, although in Ukraine most want to go to Russia first, in Albania Italy comes first, in Serbia Germany.